Saturday, July 16, 2016
Falling College Admissions is good for the economy?
I've been pretty tuned in to the news in recent days, and there are a lot of interesting headlines floating around right now July of 2016 has brought a number of troubling and controversial trends to light, from protests all across the United States, the declaration of political choices of the major parties for candidates for president, and all time highs in the US stock market to terrorist-style vehicle crashes in France. The most fascinating headline that floated over towards me in the past few days was the observation that college enrollment was declining in recent years, specifically at for-profit colleges, and specifically for programs focused on two year or shorter courses of study and tailored towards specific careers. Most of the students that had been attending these schools in pursuit of a new job had been on the whole older than the general college graduate, and had been motivated to take additional coursework on because they were unable to progress in a rough job market without either additional training, certification, or potentially a complete re-training and a pivot into a different sector.
If the enrollments in these types of trade-focused schools is falling, this could mean that those careers are less attractive, which is a possibility, but it could also mean that there are many more opportunities available to people besides paying for two years of post high-school education to get a certificate.
I suppose that this would qualify as a curious case in macro-economics, as it is likely a net positive when people are going to school, getting extra skills, and then going out and applying those skills to help make the economy more efficient, but it is also a positive thing when there are opportunities available to people that allow them to earn a good income without the need for additional, lower efficiency educational programming right out of school, which would allow the people working at that for-profit college to go and produce work themselves.
What do you think? Should we consider falling enrollments a positive or negative sign for the economy? Is there an education bubble in the West right now?
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